Applying Dynamic Modeling and Adaptive Management to Brucellosis Control in the Yellowstone Area
Publication Type:
ReportSource:
Colorado State University, p.26 (1998)Call Number:
415Keywords:
bison; elk; management; brucellosis; Greater Yellowstone Area; wildlife health; brucella; brucella abortus; bacteria; adaptive management; modelingAbstract:
Brucellosis is an economically, ecologically, and politically important disease that causes abortions in cattle, elk, and bison. A 6-decade, $3.5 billion eradication effort has eliminated brucellosis in most of the United States, and the primary remaining reservoir of brucellosis is now in bison and elk inhabiting the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA). This reservoir, established nearly a century ago, threatens achievement of the national goal to eradicate brucellosis in the United States. Current and proposed plans to manage brucellosis in the GYA have not been quantitatively analyzed, and the lack of an objective analysis has led to a political climate characterized by confrontations between citizens, state, and federal agencies. We plan to develop models that forecast the dynamics of brucellosis, identify the most effective management strategies in the face of uncertainty, and provide clear guidance for policy and management actions to control or eradicate brucellosis throughout the GYA.We focus on four tasks to achieve these goals. First, we will collect, analyze, and synthesize information needed to simulate brucellosis dynamics and place this information into databases that can be used by citizens or agencies to confirm our analyses or to conduct their own. Second, we will expand and refine our model of brucellosis dynamics and integrate the model with the database. Third, we will conduct an assessment of management actions that incorporates costs and uncertainties. The first three tasks form the basis for our final task, in which we develop optimal and adaptive management strategies. We will use stochastic dynamic programming to identify the best state-dependent strategy with important suboptimal alternatives and management strategies to address the most critical information deficits. Adaptive management strategies provide an optimal tradeoff between the need to manage for current benefits and the research will vastly improve the ability of state and federal agencies to make informed and defensible decisions on management of brucellosis.
Notes:
Found in Bison LibraryNatureBib ID: 652209
